Too Risky To Take The Bus, Too Poor To Buy A Car: How Will People Get Around Post-COVID19?

Automologist LING ponders on how people will move around, if at all they do, after the pandemic. 

A combination of the world being in lockdown and a fear of being in close proximity with strangers on a bus, train and ride-share car, in which numerous other passengers of unknown health condition are ridding/have ridden before you, have caused public transport to gain the reputation of a leper.

In a survey conducted by IBM’s Institute for Business Value involving 14,000 respondents, it is clear that people are reconsidering how they will get around post-pandemic. Out of those who used to regularly use public transport, eg. buses and trains, 20% of them will stop using public transport altogether while 28% will use it less frequently. And a majority of those surveyed said they will use ride-sharing services less or stop relying on them completely.

Suddenly, getting around in a private vehicle might appeal even to the tree-hugger wearing the largest hemp trousers. Yet, consumers have already started being conservative with their spending and have become especially cautious in buying big-ticket items, like a car. With news of more and more businesses closing down and people losing their jobs, many, in fact, would not be able to pay their electricity bills much less buy a personal vehicle. The same survey found that people are putting off buying a new car for at least six months, even with manufacturers offering incentives.

What choice do they have then except to take the bus, you might think. But when you are jobless or, as the trend is now, working from home, what need is there to commute every day? Arguably, many companies and employees, depending on the nature of the business and work, have found that flexible working hours and the work-from-home arrangement have not hampered productivity too much and might even have improved it.

So, with there being less need to commute and fewer commuters, buses and trains will operate at lower frequencies and trains will be fitted with two instead of four coaches. And if social distancing measures extend to the inside of public vehicles, the cost of a ticket will skyrocket, considering there are fewer passengers and lower passenger-to-vehicle ratio to cover the cost of running the transport service.

Will this also signal the end for favourite ride-hailing companies, which had become such a significant part of our commuting life in just the last few years? Well, it depends on how quickly these companies can pivot their business. Many ride-share companies run multi-services, such as package and food delivery, for which demand has spiked. However, Uber’s gains in their UberEats division could not make up for the losses in their ride-hailing division and they had to recently lay off 14% of their workforce. For Grab in Indonesia, though, demand for their GrabExpress division to deliver products from social-media-based sellers jumped by 40% from February to March. At this rate, on-demand logistics could take the place of ride-sharing as their new core business.

Some people are waiting for life to return to normal. But with predictions that social distancing will continue long after the pandemic is over, maybe we are already living the new normal.